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At first, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "significant consequences" last August if Vladimir Putin carried on blocking peace discussions, he finally imposed major sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his military invasion in the region.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's proposal would in practice favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump continues to view the war as a basic land disagreement, as if giving Putin a part of Ukraine's soil will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a damaged swath of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Surrenders

While maintaining in place the currently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk region. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in over a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a step that would enable additional hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their current large number troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, the plan declares: "Every extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan includes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached equivalent treaties in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a truce and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the initiative warns of a "immediate joint defense action" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from deploying forces on the nation's land, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his reduced military, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary protection against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not