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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.