Daily Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean figure of per-day killings each month in the country has decreased by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers may not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This information was shared by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, adding that last month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may obscure periods when there were especially elevated levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.